By Charles Jay
The injury to center Dwight Howard could have a tremendous impact on the fortunes of the Houston Rockets as they try to beat the NBA odds and tie up their Western Conference playoff series against the Golden State Warriors on Thursday.
In the NBA odds that have been posted on this game by the people at Vietbet, the Warriors are laying a bundle:
Golden State Warriors -10.5
Houston Rockets +10.5
Over 220 points -110
Under 220 points -110
Coming into the Western Conference championship series against the Golden State Warriors, the Houston Rockets were confident that they would have a player who could make up what was apparently a huge difference between these two squads, based on the head-to-head meetings that were conducted this season. Dwight Howard, who missed half of the regular season, can’t shoot free throws very well, but otherwise he was having a pretty successful post-season, pulling down 22% of all available rebounds. That was going to be important, as Vietbet patrons are well aware, because Golden State had a lot of success against the Rockets during the four regular-season meetings, with an offensive rebounding percentage of 29%. That creates a lot of second-shot opportunities, and Howard has the ability to shut that down.
He wasn’t doing so bad in Tuesday night’s Game 1 either, with 13 rebounds in 26 minutes of play. But at some point in the second quarter, he collided with teammate Josh Smith, and in the opinion of most observers, was lucky to come out of it with just a sprained left knee. He was not of a lot of use to his squad in the remaining time that he played, although they were only at minus-2 in terms of the point differential after he suffered the injury. Howard admits that he is in a lot of pain, and that there is a strong possibility he may have to sit out Game 2, which is scheduled to begin at 9 PM ET at the Oracle Arena in Oakland.
Houston blew a 16-point lead in the second quarter, as Shaun Livingston entered the game and became an agent of change, scoring 14 points in that second stanza and leading the Warriors all the way back to the extent that they had a three-point lead at halftime. They did not exactly cruise to victory though, as Houston deserved credit for hanging in gamely, and even cutting the lead to just two points in the waning moments. But a big effort in the 110-106 defeat was cold comfort for the Rockets, who might be taking their decision on their star center all the way down to game time.
Howard underwent an MRI and is listed officially as “questionable,” although everybody knows he will do everything in his power to play. At the same time, he cautions that he is not going to go out there if he thinks he is going to risk a serious injury. He is saying things like “I have to listen to my body.” He also knows that if he has no mobility, he is going to be fair game for the Golden State lineup, especially if it goes “small,” the way it did during that second-quarter comeback, when the Warriors exhibited some real advantages in quickness. It is conceivable that Draymond Green, even at 6-foot-7, can defend the pivot position, since he is an efficient enough defender to have been the runner-up in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
If Howard can’t play at all, this is something that will definitely affect the way Vietbet patrons look at the game, because Houston allows five more points per 100 possessions without him on the floor. This is a team that has no real depth at the center spot, and if they are forced to go to a small lineup, they are not going to be able to beat Golden State at its own game.
At that point, it is pretty much left up to James Harden, who can do some super-human things, as he almost scored a triple-double on Tuesday (28 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists), but generally isn’t going to be enough to out-duel this explosive Golden State squad, which averaged 110 points per contest and has a huge advantage at the point guard spot with Stephen Curry, who nailed 34 points in the opener. Perhaps we will see Golden State continue its dominance over Houston, after sweeping all four regular-season meetings, although it should be noted that the cover against the spread went to the Rockets on Tuesday.
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