By Charles Jay
American Pharoah will try to do what a dozen previous horses failed at – winning the Belmont Stakes and completing the Triple Crown. It won’t be an easy assignment, as eight entrants go to post at about 6:50 PM ET on Saturday.
Here are the horses and their odds at Vietbet, along with post positions:
- Mubtaahij +1250
- Tale of Verve +2200
- Madefromlucky +1500
- Frammento +4500
- American Pharoah -130
- Frosted +525
- Keen Ice +2300
- Materiality +625
Bob Baffert does not seem to mind his horse’s placing in the #5 chute. It does appear, however, that Todd Pletcher, trainer of Materiality, believes that his charge can take advantage of being on the outside at #8 if he can get a nice break from the gate and keep “an honest pace,” as he puts it. Well, he should get away clean, and if Materiality wants to dart to the front, or close to it, he should be able to.
Those horse racing bettors at Vietbet who like to consult with the Beyer Speed Figures (formulated by Washington Post columnist and noted handicapper Andrew Beyer) take special note that Materiality has the highest top speed figure of any horse in this field (110), while the best American Pharoah (-130) has managed thus far is a 105, which happened on two occasions. In the Preakness, Pharoah chalked up a Beyer of 102.
This is that time of year when talk turns to how “unfair” the Belmont is in a sense, especially for those horses who may be vying for a Triple Crown, as this is now the third race in five weeks for Pharoah, while horses like Materiality are well-rested, having skipped the Preakness to aim for the mile and a half “Test of the Champion.” But that is the way it is in horse racing, and these days not many horses are bred to go this distance, so there is perhaps too much versatility required in a rather short period of time.
Vietbet patrons who follow bloodlines know that Materiality (+625) scores big in that department, as his sire is Afleet Alex, who is the last competitor who raced in all three Triple Crown events to capture both the Preakness AND the Belmont. And at the long distance his effort was scary, back in 2005, as he rounded the far turn and simply blew everyone in the field away, drawing off by seven lengths. Since he is fresh now, Materiality can’t be sold short.
The prospect of deep closers is always something exciting in the Belmont Stakes, which is why some tracksiders are expecting something special out of horses like Keen Ice and Tale of Verve. Keen Ice got off to a horrible start in the Kentucky Derby and then passed ten horses in the stretch to finish seventh, and the sire is Curlin, a winner of the Preakness and Breeders Cup Classic who lost the Belmont by a nose to the filly, Rags to Riches. Tale of Verve, who didn’t even break maiden until his seventh career race, came on like a freight train to finish second in the Preakness. Strange things have been known to happen in the Belmont, and seven of the last fifteen winners had not tasted victory after breaking their maiden.
So there are some storylines out there.
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